The certainties for the rest of Round 7

There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.

Or is there?

We’ve got four certainties for Friday night footy, but with eight other games in Round 7, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.

Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the weekend’s action.

Round 6 certainties: 18/20 fair

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Geelong v Fremantle

Geelong to win

Starting off short and simple, the Cats will get it done on Saturday afternoon at the highway in Geelong.

Their overall record at GHMBA stadium needs no introduction and the Round 7 clash will be just their second game at home this year, the first a 10-point win over Brisbane in Round 4.

Meanwhile, this is the Dockers’ first real test this season. Coming up against a strong side on a tough ground to play, it’s likely to present too much of a challenge to Justin Longmuir’s men.

Geelong will find a way to win and deliver a mini-reality check to the Dockers in the process.

Brayshaw to have less than 30 disposals

Andrew Brayshaw has joined the upper echelon of AFL midfielders with his strong start to 2022, but expect him to find things a bit more difficult on Saturday.

The last time the 22-year-old played Geelong he only delivered 21 possessions, and while his game has drastically improved, it’s often meant the presence of a tagger this year.

As expected for a young player, Brayshaw is still learning to deal with the tag, and clubs have often sent a player to him for short periods during a match to cool his influence this year.

With Geelong selecting their tagger in Mark O’Connor, expect Chris Scott to have a plan for Brayshaw if he gets off the chain to limit his influence.

Seb Mottram


Adelaide v GWS Giants

Walker to kick 2 or more goals

Adelaide veteran Taylor Walker has been terrific since returning to senior footy.

Walker’s three games this year has seen a return of 12 goals. The last time he faced the Gaints, he had five shots on goals for a return of four majors.

One of the best set shots in the comp, Walker makes the most of his opportunities, surely kicking two or more goals is a “certainty”.

The Giants defense will struggle to go with Walker and given his form, he should hit the scoreboard multiple times.

Kelly to have 25 or more disposals

Despite a slow start to 2022 by his lofty standards, Kelly found some form in last week’s match St Kilda, collecting 30 disposals in the 17-point loss.

Since Round 18 in 2021, Kelly has had less than 25 touches a game on two just occasions, his running ability makes it almost inevitable.

Expect the Giants co-captain to get busy as they desperately look to claim their second win for the year.

Hugh Fitzpatrick


Melbourne v Hawthorn

Gawn to finish with 25+ hit-outs and at least two clearances

Max Gawn’s partnership with Luke Jackson is without question the best ruck combination in the AFL.

With Jackson unavailable this week due to COVID, Gawn will shoulder most of the ruck duties against Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday.

Melbourne’s captain has been getting the job done both in the air and on the ground, averaging 26.2 hit-outs and 4.3 clearances per game so far this season.

Gawn should dominate the ruck battle against inexperienced Hawks tall Max Lynch.

Gunston and Breust to kick at least a goal each

Hawthorn’s veteran goal kickers have hit the scoreboard on a regular occurrence in 2022.

Breust has kicked multiple goals in every game he’s played this year, while Gunston has booted three goals on three occasions.

In total, Breust and Gunston have kicked 24 goals between them and hold the key to Hawthorn kicking a winning score against the unbeaten Demons.

The premiership forwards will ask questions of Melbourne’s organized defence.

Alex Zaia


St Kilda v Port Adelaide

Steele to finish with 25+ disposals

St Kilda captain Jack Steele has been in fine form in 2022, averaging 28.7 disposals per game.

The midfielder is a model of consistency, picking up between 23 and 33 disposals in every game so far this year.

Last time out against the Power, Steele picked up 37 disposals – a career high – as well as kicking a goal as he picked up two Brownlow votes.

With strong recent form against Port Adelaide and consistent output so far this season, expect Steele to put in another quality performance and feature near the top of the stat sheet.

Rozee to collect 20+ disposals

Connor Rozee has looked a new player after being moved into the midfield a fortnight ago against Carlton.

The Power youngster was struggling to form up forward, averaging 12 touches and half a goal a game, but his move to attend more center bounces has seen his performance spike.

From two games in his new role, Rozee has averaged 27.5 disposals, including a career-high 31 against the Eagles last weekend.

After proving himself in his new position, Rozee should get enough time at the stoppage to go north of 20 disposals yet again.

Lachlan Geleit


Carlton v North Melbourne

Goldstein to win the hit-out count

With Marc Pittonet out for Carlton and Tristan Xerri missing for North Melbourne, the door has opened for Todd Goldstein to once again take control of the ruck for the Roos.

Callum Coleman-Jones has returned to the team, but expect him to play mostly forward and back Goldstein up.

The Roos veteran has spent most of the season up forward and will be itching to get back on-ball, especially against a young Carlton ruckman who struggles against more experienced types.

Expect Goldstein to be too strong for Tom De Koning and win the hit-out count.

McKay and Curnow combine for 4 goals

Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow have nearly kicked the majority of Carlton’s goals so far this season and with the Blues likely to win this game, that entails those two will hit the scoreboard.

Ben McKay will not play for the Roos meaning they will be without their best key defender and that should open the door even more so for the Carlton pair under the roof at Marvel Stadium.

Expect both Harry and Charlie to feast.

Nic Negrepontis


Collingwood v Gold Coast

Mihocek will kick multiple goals

Anzac Day Medalist Jack Ginnivan may have taken the plaudits for booting five goals last week, but the forward impact of Brody Mihocek should not go unnoticed.

The big-bodied Mihocek kicked four crucial goals in the see-sawing contest, in an unheralded performance in the biggest home and away fixture of the year.

The 2018 rookie selection has led Collingwood’s goal kicking for the last three consecutive years, and Mihocek is the top Pie again (with 12) so far this season.

He has kicked multiple goals in four of his five appearances in 2022, and we’ll back Brody to hit the scoreboard again against the Suns.

Witts will dominate the hit-outs

The Suns co-captain is comforatbly leading the league for total hit-outs this season (218) and expect him to dominate the depleted Pies at the MCG.

Witts got his hands to the tap a whopping 48 times in the QClash last week, and the former Pie is primed to cause his old side headaches when he lines up at the stoppages on Sunday.

With Collingwood ruckman Brodie Grundy going down with a PCL injury, Darcy Cameron will assume the number one ruck mantle, supported by the potential inclusion of Mason Cox … we can’t see them getting near it against the in-form Witts.

It will be advantage Gold Coast at the bounce, but will the Suns mids make the most of Witts’ tap-work dominance?

Terence Lattanzio


Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon

Macrae will win 32+ disposals

Jack Macrae is a disposal machine. He’s averaging 31 disposals per game this season and essentially doing whatever he likes.

Essendon’s midfield don’t tend to put a whole heap of defensive effort in and Macrae will feast in the space.

If you needed further convincing, the Dogs star has averaged 35.3 disposals per game against the Bombers in his last four encounters with them.

He won’t be the only Bulldogs midfielder who finds plenty of the ball either.

Essendon will lose the clearance count

So far this season, the Western Bulldogs are +31 in clearance differential, ranked number one in the AFL.

Essendon meanwhile are -25 on the season, ranked 15th.

The Bombers’ midfield is packed with talent, but they have not been able to deliver when it comes to the clearance battle.

Expect the Dogs to win the count in this one.

Nic Negrepontis


Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Neale to have 25 or more disposals

Lachie Neale has had a terrific start to the season, sitting ninth in the AFL coaches’ votes.

Expect the Lions star to be amongst it against the Swans and gather 25 or more disposals in their Round 7 clash at the SCG.

Neale is a big reason behind Brisbane’s 5-1 start, averaging 32.6 disposals a game, recapturing the 2020 form that saw him win the Brownlow Medal.

Parker to have 23 or more disposals

Sydney Swans co-captain Luke Parker has been such a consistent midfielder throughout his career.

Averaging 23 disposals per game this year, Parker is likely to either reach or surpass that number this weekend.

Parker loves playing against the Lions, averaging 26 touches in his last three outings.

Sunday’s match is a big one – expect Parker to lead from the front.

Hugh Fitzpatrick






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